Monday 14th May

Good morning, Markets on Friday were relatively sanguine about the news out of J P Morgan that their Whale in London also known as ‘Voledemort’ has got them into a bit of a pickle..I was on the bus this morning and the guy in the seat in front was applying for risk management jobs..expect to see an uptick in that job market..Now $2bn is affordable for JPM but it’s not a good look..these guys are supposed to be good so if that’s happening to them God help the others!! Anyway the real news was political over the weekend with the Spanish taking to the streets across the land, the Greeks unable to agree on a Government(again) and the Chinese easing monetary conditions..The scary thing from ‘Zombieland’ looks like the departure of Greece from the great experiment no longer seems so unthinkable..in fact it is looking like they are actually planning for it...not sure you can plan for such an event as we don’t fully understand the consequences...we can only look to Lehmans as an example and that was not pretty! If the US banks are too big to fail...what about a whole country or string of countries in Club Med... Our market will be quiet, weaker and nervous.. Things that make me go..doh! 1.The Avengers powers ahead and takes Disney to all time high!! 2.City pull off a miracle 44 years in the making..sorry Sir Alex..time to be a gracious loser! Not in his vocabulary!! 3.Incitec Pivot earnings fall 20% ..fall below analyst’s estimates...explosives to suffer in the US from lower coal and higher gas production. 4.This week brings bond auctions from Italy, Germany and France..German GDP data on Tuesday...if they have slipped that’s not gonna help! 5.J P Morgan sacks a few people..I am sure they will get a good pay out for having a go! 6.’Moaning Mertle’ takes a hit in local elections..worst result postwar in the biggest German state.. 7.Aussie dollar heading to 95c?Gold at 4 month low as US dollar continues to strengthen...Oil sinks to 2012 lows... 8. Posting views on Facebook and other social media sites delivers a powerful reward to the brain similar to the pleasure from food and sex, a Harvard study concludes....do people really study this stuff..really? 9.VIX up another 5% to just shy of 20!!could go a lot higher! Thought I would leave you with a couple of charts and a word on the Unemployment numbers from last week..market will continue to underwhelm!! More on that rogue unemployment number from last week According to the ABS: “Work is taken to mean work for one hour or more during the reference week, undertaken for pay, profit, commission or payment in kind, in a job, business or farm, or without pay in a family business or farm.”That’s gotta a be a well paid hour if the mortgage is due!! Need to consolidate this support or another downward leg to come..4150 perhaps... Looking at this long term chart..I am not sure what we were thinking from 2003 to 2009 but suspect it may be a while before we get that sort of run again! Thought for the day..six out of seven Dwarfs are not Happy!